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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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