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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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