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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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