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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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