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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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