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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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