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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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