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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
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