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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
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