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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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