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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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