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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
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Showing 1516 to 1520 news of total 6871 |
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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