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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
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Showing 1516 to 1520 news of total 6871 |
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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