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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
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Showing 1521 to 1525 news of total 6871 |
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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