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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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