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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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