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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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