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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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