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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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