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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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