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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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