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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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