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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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