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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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