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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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