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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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