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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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