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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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