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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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