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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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