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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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