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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
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Showing 1461 to 1465 news of total 6871 |
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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