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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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