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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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