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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
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