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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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