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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
...
Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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