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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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