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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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