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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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