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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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