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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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