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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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