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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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