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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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