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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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