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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
 Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.
The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.
Elsewhere, there are signs that market re-balancing will be gradual. The trajectory of Iran’s production and exports remains important. In December, total exports increased slightly to over 1.3 mb/d. With US waivers allowing Iran’s major customers to buy higher volumes than was previously thought, more oil will remain in the market in the early part of 2019. Venezuela has seen the collapse of its oil industry slow during the second half of 2018 with production falling recently by about 10 kb/d each month rather than by the 40 kb/d we saw earlier in the year. The level of output in the world’s biggest liquids producer, the United States, will once again be a major factor in 2019. We saw incredible and unexpected growth in total liquids production of 2.1 mb/d in 2018. For this year, we have left unchanged for now our forecast for growth of 1.3 mb/d. While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the US, already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world’s number one crude producer. By the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.
For oil demand, there is a mixed picture. Falling prices in 4Q18 helped consumers and there are signs that trade tensions might be easing. In many developing countries, lower international oil prices coincide with a weaker dollar as the likelihood of higher US interest rates fades for now. However, the mood music in the global economy is not very cheerful. Confidence is weakening in several major economies. In the short term, there is added uncertainty about oil demand due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with low temperatures seen in the past few days in many places. For now, we retain our view that demand growth in 2018 was 1.3 mb/d, and this year it will be slightly higher at 1.4 mb/d, mainly due to average prices being below year-ago levels.
In the meantime, refiners face a challenging year. Processing capacity will increase by 2.6 mb/d, the biggest growth for four decades, while margins are already pressured by low gasoline cracks due to oversupply and weak demand. The well-trailed changes to the International Maritime Organisation’s marine fuel regulations due in 2020 are another big issue for some refiners as they seek to find outlets for unwanted high sulphur fuel oil. By the end of the year, all industry players, upstream and downstream, may feel as if they have run a marathon.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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