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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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