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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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