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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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