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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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