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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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