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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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