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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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