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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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