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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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