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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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