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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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