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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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