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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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