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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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