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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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