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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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