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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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