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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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