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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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