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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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