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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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