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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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