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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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