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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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