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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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