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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
 Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resembles that of a ship sailing, for the past decade, in shallow and tidy waters trying to avoid groundings. It was caught on a grounding two years ago, but is now freed by the rising tide. The Captain is of course relieved to be able to set sail. But this relief must be tempered by the urgency to sail toward deeper seas before the receding waters beach the ship again.
Until the mid of 2018, all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflected optimism. More than half of the world's countries were experiencing growth. There was a synchronized recovery resulting in faster and stronger growth in the near term. Unemployment has declined in USA, Europe and Japan, whilst inflation has not picked up, finding a point of golden balance. However, as the report from WBG points out, the medium term prospects tell a different story. Trade wars may be devastating and the protectionist threats have already cast their spell on the world's growth, with uncertainty killing investment. Obviously this is also directly affecting the shipping market; adding on top of this the 2020 Sulphur cap regulations and untested solutions, the future of coal and the additional capex for WBT the result is more uncertainty, which makes shipping professionals more reluctant.
Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past eight months and expectations for upside surprises have receded. Global growth downward revision during 2018 reflects events that suppressed activity in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade threats and measures already implemented or approved, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.
On the ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the dry bulk fleet grew by 200 vessels in absolute terms since last year. Whilst 2018 will be remembered for the very few bulk carrier deliveries - from the 400 bulk carriers that were planned to be delivered in 2018 just 268 ships were delivered - there was also very low scrapping activity, just fifty bulk carriers were sold for demolition. For 2019 it is projected that shipbuilders will deliver about another 530 vessels. The orderbook has increased by about 200 vessels since the same time last year but if we go back another few years it is much smaller and appears much more reasonable. Compared to the existing fleet, new building orders are 7% for the Handysize, 6% for the Supramax and 10% for the Panamax/Kamsarmax sector and the Capesize sector is 11%.
The trade growth, i.e. demand for seaborne trade, in 2019 and 2020 and the fleet utilization will judge the fate of a lot of the older tonnage and whether the market is good enough to support additional investment (WBT) or not, in which case they will have to make way for the younger ones. Oil prices and the efficiency of each vessel will play a huge role on investment decisions. So, once again, we are approaching 2020 with uncertainty and volatility on both the demand and the supply side. 2019 is going to be interesting...
Happy New Year to All.
By Theodoros Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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