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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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