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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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