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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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