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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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