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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Tuesday, 16 October 18
A PRACTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With less than eighteen months before Regulation 14.1.3 of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention comes into effect, there are ...
Saturday, 13 October 18
SUPRAMAX: SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN WAS EVIDENT AND RATES JUMPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with t ...
Wednesday, 10 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
During the end of last month the BHSI was hovering around 630 points, while the last observed sale on a 10-yr old Japanese Handy was the M/V Van Im ...
Monday, 08 October 18
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL 3.74% IN OCTOBER 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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