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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Sunday, 07 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA USUAL COAL RUNS WERE COVERED AT US$ 12K - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earnings up close to 15 pct in 5 trading days, thus patience finally paying off for owners of the big ships - Chinese play ...
Sunday, 07 October 18
A CASE FOR 20/20 VISION? IMO'S LOW SULPHUR FUEL LIMIT UNDER MARPOL ANNEX VI WHICH COMES INTO FORCE ON 1ST JANUARY 2020
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The implementation of the global 0.5% sulphur cap for bunker fuel under MARPOL Annex VI in just under 18 months’ ti ...
Friday, 05 October 18
COAL PRODUCTION REACHES 64% OF 2018 TARGET : THE JAKARTA POST
National coal production up to August has already reached 311 million tons, or 64 percent of this year's total target of 485 million tons, acco ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
VALUE OF AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TIPPED TO DECLINE SHARPLY OVER NEXT 18 MONTHS - THE GUARDIAN
Thermal coal prices forecast to drop 25% and metallurgical coal prices 23% as value of iron ore exports also falls
The value of Aust ...
Wednesday, 03 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
The bunker fuel supply and availability landscape is close to its transformation with the enforcement of the IMO’s global 0.5% fuel Sulphur c ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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