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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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