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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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