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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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