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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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