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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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