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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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