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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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