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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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