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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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