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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
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Showing 1521 to 1525 news of total 6871 |
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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