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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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