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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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