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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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