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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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