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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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