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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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