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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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