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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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